Leading efficiently ( kinda ) in VGC16
This is gonna be a boon to write and probably to read since its such a difficult topic to cover, but since a lot of people ( Myself included sometimes ) struggle on how to lead. This can lead to autopilot decisions that can prove disastrous, especially in a format as volatile as this. I'll attempt to cover some of the more commonly led pairs from popular archetypes and some specific Pokemon and also Pokemon with useful traits that won't immediately lose you the game.
Note the specific Pokemon will be Mons that are relatively splashable in any team, IE Thundurus Salamence. Because even if Lum berry Empoleon beats Smeargle Xerneas, chances are you'll lose the majority of your games just by having a silly Pokemon on your team.
Also note your lead can depend heavily on what Pokemon you plan to bring in the back so this isnt a guide on How to win every lead matchup. It just highlights things to look out for and how to counterplay them with the options you have.
Fake out pressure:
This is incredibly common in any format as getting a free turn to get off any attack whatsoever be it speed control, set up or just letting a strong mon blow a hole in the other team is lovely. Its incredibly important to immediately find the opponents Fake out Pokemon (they probably have one) and identify its speed stat. There are very few viable Fake Out Pokemon in this format, but the one's that can effectively use it, happen to be very strong Pokemon. These include Kangaskhan ( 90speed pre mega) Raichu ( 110 ) Liepard ( 105 ) and Weavile (125) and a mention should go to Smeargle (75) that sometimes run it. On team preview you can expect a faster FO Pokemon to be led with. This might not always be the case but its very important to consider it as an option as giving the opp a free turn.
Counterplay to FO leads differ vastly in risk levels and actual effectiveness. A riskier move is Quick Guard which is common on Pokemon such as Crobat and Talonflame. However a Kangaskhan can quite easily just use a strong attacking move and pick up a KO early. Inner Focus also stops FO from inflicting a Flinch, although the only Pokemon of note with this is Crobat. A double protect may also appear safe if the other side doesn't have any form of obvious set up, although an unexpected Swords Dance or Substitute can lose massive amounts of momentum. An easier way is to lead with a faster Fake Out user than the opponents which can provoke them to not even try or trade Fake outs. Prankster Pokemon that learn Encore like Whimsicott and Liepard can deter a Fake out but will draw out a stronger attack so be aware of that. Make sure your answer to Fake Out isn't in a vacuum however, Always always consider the partners options as ignoring the partner can result in a swift loss.
Speed control:
This is often paired up next to a FO user, IE: Kangaskhan Talonflame but can also be seen next to a Primal Pokemon which is arguably more threatening as allowing them to successfully use the move will result in a Primal Pokemon running through your team. This is a MASSIVE thing to consider on preview, however autopilot it may seem. A common pairing of this nature is Groudon Talon or Crobat Kyogre. Seeing both of these Pokemon on team preview should be enough to force your hand into leading with your own speed control (if you weren't doing that anyways) While Pokemon like Thundurus can Thunder Wave the turn later, this obviously won't work if the opponent has a Groudon or is clicking Quick Guard so this isn't foolproof. If one goes this route be sure to immediately ko the opponents Quick Guard user. Leading with Trick-Room or Tailwind of your own can prevent a mullering as well so don't fret if Thundurus isn't gonna cut it/they have a Groudon. Again the partner to the Tailwinder should dictate your play.
Another big option is Trick-Room which is easily identifiable on team preview. This is arguably the hardest speed control to prevent as the setters are often incredibly difficult to KO. IE: Cresselia Bronzong. Gengar may also be seen with T-room but this is uncommon. Different teams will approach this differently, with some abusing the free turn you get whilst t-room is set up and other's attempting to OHKO the setter: Yveltal.
A safeish pick against possible T-room is Amoonguss as this dissuades T-room altogether out of fear of rampant Sporing. If they don't choose to set up t-room however, Amoonguss isn't deadweight as it can redirect attacks from your stronger Partner.
Thunder wave/Thundurus is a huge huge Pokemon to consider as a lead since it is commonly led alongside Fake out Support : Kangaskhan Thundurus. Unfortunately there isn't much out there that can viably shut down Thunder Wave spam. Attempting to Taunt a Thundy with your own can result in a speed tie so its not a safe option. Raichu is a decent shut down to Thundurus but it's incredibly frail and prone to being ko'd early. Ground Pokemon like Groudon and Landorus are immune to Paralysis but it won't protect your partner from getting Paralysed. Slower Pokemon like Ferrothorn tend not to mind the speed drop but the 25% chance to miss your turn is huge enough to be wary. The best way to prevent Thunder wave spam is to Ko the user as fast as possibly before your team is bright yellow and you're bright red.
Icy wind is mentionable but the only real user of this move is Gengar, this can be counterplayed by leading with your own Speed control, especially Trick Room.
Gimmicks:
I won't spend too much time on this as its hardly relevant but no one likes losing to Soak Shedinja. Its important to notice the gimmick asap and do as much as you can to disrupt it. Be it with Fake out, Quick guard , Redirection or just plain offence. These tend to be noticed by very obscure Pokemon choices like Floatzel , Spinda and Magikarp. These teams are only really found at low level play so its not something your likely to run into at a tournament.
I won't spend too much time on this as its hardly relevant but no one likes losing to Soak Shedinja. Its important to notice the gimmick asap and do as much as you can to disrupt it. Be it with Fake out, Quick guard , Redirection or just plain offence. These tend to be noticed by very obscure Pokemon choices like Floatzel , Spinda and Magikarp. These teams are only really found at low level play so its not something your likely to run into at a tournament.
There is one team you might though... and that team is Voidcats/Sheercats. This team is destroyed by one move. Quick Guard. If you have it be prepared to lead with the Pokemon that has it and click it until the game is won. If you lack Quick guard however, you should lead with your most offensive pairing (Kang Primal) and cross your fingers.
Big 6:
Oh dear. I'll start this part with saying that the pairing of Thundurus Groudon will give Big 6 a lot of trouble. Lum berry Bronzong is an incredibly strong lead utilised by T-room Double Primal. Teams can also lead Salamence Thundurus to cause issues. The biggest thing to remember when you face off against Big 6 is the Smeargle. Don't just throw on Lum berrys onto random Pokemon and expect to beat it however. The threat from Smeargle should come from the fear of Follow Me + Xerneas with Moody mixed in. This equals you wanting to KO the Smeargle as fast as possible or taunting it to have it sit there. Disabling the Follow me through any means will leave the Xerneas open to attacks and Status such as Thunder Wave. Generally you want to lead something that threatens massive damage or hindrance to Xerneas whilst also beating Smeargle. Kangaskhan,Thundurus,Faster Groudon.Talonflame variants with taunt also work. Your leads also want to be able to deal with Groudon and Salamence to some degree as these can easily be led. You'll have to use your own judgement on your team to decide your safest lead, as teams and the techs they have change dramatically. Big 6 is a complex matchup but getting the lead correct often gives you enough momentum to win the game.
Gravity stuff:
This is a relatively simple matchup for most teams given the predictability of the lead. Its just important to keep your head and remember the late game. Since Sableye will lead 9/10 times, you just have to figure out the other member. Groudon and Whimsicott are seldom seen as leads but are extremely common in the back. This leaves Gengar, Salamence and Kyurem-w. If you have multiple Ice weaks expect a Kyurem lead, Double Primal and lone Ogre tends to lure in Gengar as a lead to trap and sleep everything. Anything else can expect Salamence. I won't tell you how to actually play against it but your mons in the back are incredibly important. Strong Pokemon against this archetype include, Thundurus, Kangaskhan, Yveltal, Groudon, Talonflame.
While this 'Guide' doesn't highlight literally every lead combo ever (obviously) I hope its enough to give a general understanding of Pokemon to lead against certain common lead combo's seen. Thundurus is a common mention in this which really highlights its strength in the format right now. If I've missed anything let me know and I can edit it in. Above all, trust your judgement but keep every option your opponent has at the front of your mind and choose your leads wisely.
Best of luck
-Matt
